On March 27, Vartan Oskanian participated in the annual Brussels Forum. Held every year in Belgium’s capital, the three-day event attracts more than 400 participants from around the world. Discussions cover a variety of issues: global economics, politics, security issues, energy, relations between certain countries, and various regional problems.
Former and current high-ranking officials, directors of international organizations, and representatives of important policy institutions and think tanks participate in the formal discussions and in between events. This year, the presidents of Latvia, Estonia, Serbia and Georgia, the President of the Council of the European Union, the President of the European Commission, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, various former presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers attended the forum.
Vartan Oskanian spoke on “The Caucasus: the Next Tinderbox in Europe,” in which Georgia’s Minister on Reintegration, Temur Iakobashvili, also participated, as did the editor of The Caucasian Knot. Mr. Oskanian spoke of greater tension in the region, particularly as a result of the impact of the Armenia-Turkey process on the Karabakh conflict. The Karabakh issue has altered the Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan triangle. This now three-sided conflict can become very dangerous if it is not unraveled with care, he said.
Oskanian maintained that the primary issue is the Armenia-Turkey process because if it is not addressed the situation as it stands will lead to no improvement in relations among the two countries but will further complicate relations between all three countries and the situation in the region overall.
During the Brussels Forum, Mr. Oskanian was among those who participated in a discussion on “A Changing Turkey” during which those in the audience debated the significance of the US Congress Foreign Affairs Committee vote on the Armenian genocide as well as Turkey’s democratization and Europeanization processes.
Vartan Oskanian also spoke at the European Policy Center, in Brussels, on March 26. The roundtable was entitled “Security and Stability in the South Caucasus: Nagorno-Karabakh and the Search for a Solution—Breakthrough or Breakdown?” Mr. Oskanian spoke about the tense situation in the region. He explained that the international community’s hope of recent months that in the wake of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, the Karabakh conflict settlement would also be imminent not only has been dashed, but the opposite has happened: there is no progress on either front, and worse, each has become more complicated.
Azerbaijani representatives from various European cities and missions were present to dispute Mr. Oskanian’s stance and reassert the position they’ve settled on, especially of late, that Karabakh will never gain the right to a referendum or the right to self-determination and that in the modern world borders do not change. Responding to this type of pronouncement Vartan Oskanian spoke of how the modern world is very dynamic in change, that in the recent decade borders have been changed, and he reasserted Armenia’s position of previous years that return to the reality of 1988 is not possible in any circumstance, and that the only way to resolve this issue is to fully realize the right to self-determination for the people of Karabakh.
On the preceding Thursday, in Paris, Mr. Oskanian addressed a group of experts at the Foundation for Strategic Research on “The South Caucasus: New Challenges?”
Mr. Oskanian spoke of Armenia’s recent foreign relations challenges. He stated that if months ago at the start of the Armenia-Turkey process, most among the international community, were hopeful that this would lead to not only an Armenian-Turkish rapprochement but also to a settlement of the Karabakh conflict, then it is obvious that today both problems have reached an impasse. The general atmosphere is getting worse in the region; by Mr. Oskanian’s assessment, it was miscalculations in this process that led to the developments now capable of harming the region’s fragile stability.
French foreign ministry officials and Caucasus experts were interested in what it would take to resolve this conflict. Mr. Oskanian stated in response that with both Armenia-Turkey relations and the Karabakh conflict, there needs to be a drastic change of approach and stressed the imperative to keep the two issues clearly separate.